Rachel has the number $1000$ in her hands. When she puts the number $x$ in her left pocket, the number changes to $x+1.$ When she puts the number $x$ in her right pocket, the number changes to $x^{-1}.$ Each minute, she flips a fair coin. If it lands heads, she puts the number into her left pocket, and if it lands tails, she puts it into her right pocket. She then takes the new number out of her pocket. If the expected value of the number in Rachel's hands after eight minutes is $E,$ compute $\left\lfloor\frac{E}{10}\right\rfloor.$

A dog has three trainers: [list] [*]The first trainer gives him a treat right away. [*]The second trainer makes him jump five times, then gives him a treat. [*]The third trainer makes him jump three times, then gives him no treat. [/list] The dog will keep picking trainers with equal probability until he gets a treat. (The dog's memory isn't so good, so he might pick the third trainer repeatedly!) What is the expected number of times the dog will jump before getting a treat?

[4] Let $D$ be the set of divisors of $100$. Let $Z$ be the set of integers between $1$ and $100$, inclusive. Mark chooses an element $d$ of $D$ and an element $z$ of $Z$ uniformly at random. What is the probability that $d$ divides $z$?

In a dance party initially there are $20$ girls and $22$ boys in the pool and infinitely many more girls and boys waiting outside. In each round, a participant is picked uniformly at random; if a girl is picked, then she invites a boy from the pool to dance and then both of them elave the party after the dance; while if a boy is picked, then he invites a girl and a boy from the waiting line and dance together. The three of them all stay after the dance. The party is over when there are only (two) boys left in the pool. (a) What is the probability that the party never ends? (b) Now the organizer of this party decides to reverse the rule, namely that if a girl is picked, then she invites a boy and a girl from the waiting line to dance and the three stay after the dance; while if a boy is picked, he invites a girl from the pool to dance and both leave after the dance. Still the party is over when there are only (two) boys left in the pool. What is the expected number of rounds until the party ends?

[4] Let $x_1,x_2,\ldots,x_{100}$ be defined so that for each $i$, $x_i$ is a (uniformly) random integer between $1$ and $6$ inclusive. Find the expected number of integers in the set $\{x_1,x_1+x_2,\ldots,x_1+x_2+\cdots+x_{100}\}$ that are multiples of $6$.

Two ducks, Wat and Q, are taking a math test with $1022$ other ducklings. The test has $30$ questions, and the $n$th question is worth $n$ points. The ducks work independently on the test. Wat gets the $n$th problem correct with probability $\frac{1}{n^2}$ while Q gets the $n$th problem correct with probability $\frac{1}{n+1}$. Unfortunately, the remaining ducklings each answer all $30$ questions incorrectly. Just before turning in their test, the ducks and ducklings decide to share answers! On any question which Wat and Q have the same answer, the ducklings change their answers to agree with them. After this process, what is the expected value of the sum of all $1024$ scores? [i]Proposed by Evan Chen[/i]

In chess, there are two types of minor pieces, the bishop and the knight. A bishop may move along a diagonal, as long as there are no pieces obstructing its path. A knight may jump to any lattice square $\sqrt{5}$ away as long as it isn't occupied. One day, a bishop and a knight were on squares in the same row of an infinite chessboard, when a huge meteor storm occurred, placing a meteor in each square on the chessboard independently and randomly with probability $p$. Neither the bishop nor the knight were hit, but their movement may have been obstructed by the meteors. The value of $p$ that would make the expected number of valid squares that the bishop can move to and the number of squares that the knight can move to equal can be expressed as $\frac{a}{b}$ for relatively prime positive integers $a, b$. Compute $100a + b$. [i]Proposed by Lewis Chen[/i]

An urn contains $n$ balls labeled $1, 2, ... , n$. We draw the balls out one by one (without replacing them) until we obtain a ball whose number is divisible by $k$. Find all $k$ such that the expected number of balls removed is $k$.

Let $ S$ be a finite set of points in the plane such that no three of them are on a line. For each convex polygon $ P$ whose vertices are in $ S$, let $ a(P)$ be the number of vertices of $ P$, and let $ b(P)$ be the number of points of $ S$ which are outside $ P$. A line segment, a point, and the empty set are considered as convex polygons of $ 2$, $ 1$, and $ 0$ vertices respectively. Prove that for every real number $ x$ \[\sum_{P}{x^{a(P)}(1 \minus{} x)^{b(P)}} \equal{} 1,\] where the sum is taken over all convex polygons with vertices in $ S$. [i]Alternative formulation[/i]: Let $ M$ be a finite point set in the plane and no three points are collinear. A subset $ A$ of $ M$ will be called round if its elements is the set of vertices of a convex $ A \minus{}$gon $ V(A).$ For each round subset let $ r(A)$ be the number of points from $ M$ which are exterior from the convex $ A \minus{}$gon $ V(A).$ Subsets with $ 0,1$ and 2 elements are always round, its corresponding polygons are the empty set, a point or a segment, respectively (for which all other points that are not vertices of the polygon are exterior). For each round subset $ A$ of $ M$ construct the polynomial \[ P_A(x) \equal{} x^{|A|}(1 \minus{} x)^{r(A)}. \] Show that the sum of polynomials for all round subsets is exactly the polynomial $ P(x) \equal{} 1.$ [i]Proposed by Federico Ardila, Colombia[/i]

A [i]triangulation[/i] of a polygon is a subdivision of the polygon into triangles meeting edge to edge, with the property that the set of triangle vertices coincides with the set of vertices of the polygon. Adam randomly selects a triangulation of a regular $180$-gon. Then, Bob selects one of the $178$ triangles in this triangulation. The expected number of $1^\circ$ angles in this triangle can be expressed as $\frac{a}{b}$, where $a$ and $b$ are relatively prime positive integers. Compute $100a + b$. [i]Proposed by Lewis Chen[/i]

A knight is placed at the origin of the Cartesian plane. Each turn, the knight moves in an chess $\text{L}$-shape ($2$ units parallel to one axis and $1$ unit parallel to the other) to one of eight possible location, chosen at random. After $2016$ such turns, what is the expected value of the square of the distance of the knight from the origin?

Let $a_1,a_2,a_3,\ldots$ be an infinite sequence where for all positive integers $i$, $a_i$ is chosen to be a random positive integer between $1$ and $2016$, inclusive. Let $S$ be the set of all positive integers $k$ such that for all positive integers $j<k$, $a_j\neq a_k$. (So $1\in S$; $2\in S$ if and only if $a_1\neq a_2$; $3\in S$ if and only if $a_1\neq a_3$ and $a_2\neq a_3$; and so on.) In simplest form, let $\dfrac{p}{q}$ be the expected number of positive integers $m$ such that $m$ and $m+1$ are in $S$. Compute $pq$.

Erick stands in the square in the 2nd row and 2nd column of a 5 by 5 chessboard. There are \$1 bills in the top left and bottom right squares, and there are \$5 bills in the top right and bottom left squares, as shown below. \[\begin{tabular}{|p{1em}|p{1em}|p{1em}|p{1em}|p{1em}|} \hline \$1 & & & & \$5 \\ \hline & E & & &\\ \hline & & & &\\ \hline & & & &\\ \hline \$5 & & & & \$1 \\ \hline \end{tabular}\] Every second, Erick randomly chooses a square adjacent to the one he currently stands in (that is, a square sharing an edge with the one he currently stands in) and moves to that square. When Erick reaches a square with money on it, he takes it and quits. The expected value of Erick's winnings in dollars is $m/n$, where $m$ and $n$ are relatively prime positive integers. Find $m+n$.

We randomly choose 5 distinct positive integers less than or equal to 90. What is the floor of 10 times the expected value of the fourth largest number?

Let $(x_1,x_2,\ldots,x_n)$ be a point chosen at random in the $n$-dimensional region defined by $0<x_1<x_2<\ldots<x_n<1$, denoting $x_0=0$ and $x_{n+1}=1$. Let $f$ be a continuous function on $[0,1]$ with $f(1)=0$. Show that the expected value of the sum $$\sum_{i=0}^n(x_{i+1}-x_i)f(x_{i+1})$$is $\int^1_0f(t)P(t)dt$., where $P$ is a polynomial of degree $n$, independent of $f$, with $0\le P(t)\le1$ for $0\le t\le1$.

There are 21 competitors with distinct skill levels numbered 1, 2,..., 21. They participate in a ping-pong tournament as follows. First, a random competitor is chosen to be "active", while the rest are "inactive." Every round, a random inactive competitor is chosen to play against the current active one. The player with the higher skill will win and become (or remain) active, while the loser will be eliminated from the tournament. The tournament lasts for 20 rounds, after which there will only be one player remaining. Alice is the competitor with skill 11. What is the expected number of games that she will get to play?

George has six ropes. He chooses two of the twelve loose ends at random (possibly from the same rope), and ties them together, leaving ten loose ends. He again chooses two loose ends at random and joins them, and so on, until there are no loose ends. Find, with proof, the expected value of the number of loops George ends up with.

Suppose $x$ is a random real number between $1$ and $4$, and $y$ is a random real number between $1$ and $9$. If the expected value of \[ \left\lceil \log_2 x \right\rceil - \left\lfloor \log_3 y \right\rfloor \] can be expressed as $\frac mn$ where $m$ and $n$ are relatively prime positive integers, compute $100m + n$. [i]Proposed by Lewis Chen[/i]

Kate has two bags $X$ and $Y$. Bag $X$ contains $5$ red marbles (and nothing else). Bag $Y$ contains $4$ red marbles and $1$ blue marble (and nothing else). Kate chooses one of her bags at random (each with probability $\frac{1}{2}$) and removes a random marble from that bag (each marble in that bag being equally likely). She repeats the previous step until one of the bags becomes empty. At that point, what is the probability that the blue marble is still in bag $Y$?

Shuffle a deck of $71$ playing cards which contains $6$ aces. Then turn up cards from the top until you see an ace. What is the average number of cards required to be turned up to find the first ace?

Suppose you are given a fair coin and a sheet of paper with the polynomial $x^m$ written on it. Now for each toss of the coin, if heads show up, you must erase the polynomial $x^r$ (where $r$ is going to change with time - initially it is $m$) written on the paper and replace it with $x^{r-1}$. If tails show up, replace it with $x^{r+1}$. What is the expected value of the polynomial I get after $m$ such tosses? (Note: this is a different concept from the most probable value)

There are $30$ cities in the empire of Euleria. Every week, Martingale City runs a very well-known lottery. $900$ visitors decide to take a trip around the empire, visiting a different city each week in some random order. $3$ of these cities are inhabited by mathematicians, who will talk to all visitors about the laws of statistics. A visitor with this knowledge has probability $0$ of buying a lottery ticket, else they have probability $0.5$ of buying one. What is the expected number of visitors who will play the Martingale Lottery?

If $a$ and $b$ are selected uniformly from $\{0,1,\ldots,511\}$ without replacement, the expected number of $1$'s in the binary representation of $a+b$ can be written in simplest from as $\tfrac{m}{n}$. Compute $m+n$.

Let $n \geq 3$ be an integer. At a MEMO-like competition, there are $3n$ participants, there are n languages spoken, and each participant speaks exactly three different languages. Prove that at least $\left\lceil\frac{2n}{9}\right\rceil$ of the spoken languages can be chosen in such a way that no participant speaks more than two of the chosen languages. [b]Note.[/b] $\lceil x\rceil$ is the smallest integer which is greater than or equal to $x$.

Tim and Allen are playing a match of [i]tenus[/i]. In a match of [i]tenus[/i], the two players play a series of games, each of which is won by one of the two players. The match ends when one player has won exactly two more games than the other player, at which point the player who has won more games wins the match. In odd-numbered games, Tim wins with probability $3/4$, and in the even-numbered games, Allen wins with probability $3/4$. What is the expected number of games in a match?