$n, k$ are positive integers. $A_0$ is the set $\{1, 2, ... , n\}$. $A_i$ is a randomly chosen subset of $A_{i-1}$ (with each subset having equal probability). Show that the expected number of elements of $A_k$ is $\dfrac{n}{2^k}$

Let $ S$ be a finite set of points in the plane such that no three of them are on a line. For each convex polygon $ P$ whose vertices are in $ S$, let $ a(P)$ be the number of vertices of $ P$, and let $ b(P)$ be the number of points of $ S$ which are outside $ P$. A line segment, a point, and the empty set are considered as convex polygons of $ 2$, $ 1$, and $ 0$ vertices respectively. Prove that for every real number $ x$ \[\sum_{P}{x^{a(P)}(1 \minus{} x)^{b(P)}} \equal{} 1,\] where the sum is taken over all convex polygons with vertices in $ S$. [i]Alternative formulation[/i]: Let $ M$ be a finite point set in the plane and no three points are collinear. A subset $ A$ of $ M$ will be called round if its elements is the set of vertices of a convex $ A \minus{}$gon $ V(A).$ For each round subset let $ r(A)$ be the number of points from $ M$ which are exterior from the convex $ A \minus{}$gon $ V(A).$ Subsets with $ 0,1$ and 2 elements are always round, its corresponding polygons are the empty set, a point or a segment, respectively (for which all other points that are not vertices of the polygon are exterior). For each round subset $ A$ of $ M$ construct the polynomial \[ P_A(x) \equal{} x^{|A|}(1 \minus{} x)^{r(A)}. \] Show that the sum of polynomials for all round subsets is exactly the polynomial $ P(x) \equal{} 1.$ [i]Proposed by Federico Ardila, Colombia[/i]

We randomly choose 5 distinct positive integers less than or equal to 90. What is the floor of 10 times the expected value of the fourth largest number?

Let $f : \left[ 0, 1 \right] \to \mathbb R$ be a continuous function and $g : \left[ 0, 1 \right] \to \left( 0, \infty \right)$. Prove that if $f$ is increasing, then \[\int_{0}^{t}f(x) g(x) \, dx \cdot \int_{0}^{1}g(x) \, dx \leq \int_{0}^{t}g(x) \, dx \cdot \int_{0}^{1}f(x) g(x) \, dx .\]

Let $S=\{1,2\dots,n\}$ for some integer $n>1.$ Say a permutation $\pi$ of $S$ has a local maximum at $k\in S$ if \[\begin{array}{ccc}\text{(i)}&\pi(k)>\pi(k+1)&\text{for }k=1\\ \text{(ii)}&\pi(k-1)<\pi(k)\text{ and }\pi(k)>\pi(k+1)&\text{for }1<k<n\\ \text{(iii)}&\pi(k-1)M\pi(k)&\text{for }k=n\end{array}\] (For example, if $n=5$ and $\pi$ takes values at $1,2,3,4,5$ of $2,1,4,5,3,$ then $\pi$ has a local maximum of $2$ as $k=1,$ and a local maximum at $k-4.$) What is the average number of local maxima of a permutation of $S,$ averaging over all permuatations of $S?$

Let $x_0=1$, and let $\delta$ be some constant satisfying $0<\delta<1$. Iteratively, for $n=0,1,2,\dots$, a point $x_{n+1}$ is chosen uniformly form the interval $[0,x_n]$. Let $Z$ be the smallest value of $n$ for which $x_n<\delta$. Find the expected value of $Z$, as a function of $\delta$.

Bob is making partitions of $10$, but he hates even numbers, so he splits $10$ up in a special way. He starts with $10$, and at each step he takes every even number in the partition and replaces it with a random pair of two smaller positive integers that sum to that even integer. For example, $6$ could be replaced with $1+5$, $2+4$, or $3+3$ all with equal probability. He terminates this process when all the numbers in his list are odd. The expected number of integers in his list at the end can be expressed in the form $\frac{m}{n}$, where $m$ and $n$ are relatively prime positive integers. Compute $100m+n$. [i]Proposed by Michael Ren[/i]

Johann has $64$ fair coins. He flips all the coins. Any coin that lands on tails is tossed again. Coins that land on tails on the second toss are tossed a third time. What is the expected number of coins that are now heads? $\textbf{(A) } 32 \qquad\textbf{(B) } 40 \qquad\textbf{(C) } 48 \qquad\textbf{(D) } 56 \qquad\textbf{(E) } 64 $

A clock has an hour, minute, and second hand, all of length $1$. Let $T$ be the triangle formed by the ends of these hands. A time of day is chosen uniformly at random. What is the expected value of the area of $T$? [i]Proposed by Dylan Toh[/i]

Let a sequence be defined as follows: $a_0=1$, and for $n>0$, $a_n$ is $\tfrac{1}{3}a_{n-1}$ and is $\tfrac{1}{9}a_{n-1}$ with probability $\tfrac{1}{2}$. If the expected value of $\textstyle\sum_{n=0}^{\infty}a_n$ can be expressed in simplest form as $\tfrac{p}{q}$, what is $p+q$?

There are $256$ players in a tennis tournament who are ranked from $1$ to $256$, with $1$ corresponding to the highest rank and $256$ corresponding to the lowest rank. When two players play a match in the tournament, the player whose rank is higher wins the match with probability $\frac{3}{5}$. In each round of the tournament, the player with the highest rank plays against the player with the second highest rank, the player with the third highest rank plays against the player with the fourth highest rank, and so on. At the end of the round, the players who win proceed to the next round and the players who lose exit the tournament. After eight rounds, there is one player remaining and they are declared the winner. Determine the expected value of the rank of the winner.

Five balls are arranged around a circle. Chris chooses two adjacent balls at random and interchanges them. Then Silva does the same, with her choice of adjacent balls to interchange being independent of Chris's. What is the expected number of balls that occupy their original positions after these two successive transpositions? $(\textbf{A})\: 1.6\qquad(\textbf{B}) \: 1.8\qquad(\textbf{C}) \: 2.0\qquad(\textbf{D}) \: 2.2\qquad(\textbf{E}) \: 2.4$

Suppose $x$ is a random real number between $1$ and $4$, and $y$ is a random real number between $1$ and $9$. If the expected value of \[ \left\lceil \log_2 x \right\rceil - \left\lfloor \log_3 y \right\rfloor \] can be expressed as $\frac mn$ where $m$ and $n$ are relatively prime positive integers, compute $100m + n$. [i]Proposed by Lewis Chen[/i]

Calamitous Clod deceives the math beasts by changing a clock at Beast Academy. First, he removes both the minute and hour hands, then places each of them back in a random position, chosen uniformly along the circle. Professor Grok notices that the clock is not displaying a valid time. That is, the hour and minute hands are pointing in an orientation that a real clock would never display. One such example is the hour hand pointed at $6$ and the minute hand pointed at $3$. [center] [asy] import olympiad; size(4cm); defaultpen(fontsize(8pt)); draw(circle(origin, 4)); dot(origin); for(int i = 1; i <= 12; ++i){ label("$"+string(i)+"$", (3.6*sin(i * pi/6), 3.6*cos(i * pi/6))); } draw(origin -- (3.2, 0), EndArrow(5)); draw(origin -- (0, -2.2), EndArrow(5)); [/asy] [/center] The math beasts can fix this, though. They can turn both hands by the same number of degrees clockwise. On average, what is the minimal number of degrees they must turn the hands so that they display a valid time?

If $a$ and $b$ are selected uniformly from $\{0,1,\ldots,511\}$ without replacement, the expected number of $1$'s in the binary representation of $a+b$ can be written in simplest from as $\tfrac{m}{n}$. Compute $m+n$.

Consider the randomly generated base 10 real number $r = 0.\overline{p_0p_1p_2\ldots}$, where each $p_i$ is a digit from $0$ to $9$, inclusive, generated as follows: $p_0$ is generated uniformly at random from $0$ to $9$, inclusive, and for all $i \geq 0$, $p_{i + 1}$ is generated uniformly at random from $p_i$ to $9$, inclusive. Compute the expected value of $r$.

If $a$ and $b$ are selected uniformly from $\{0,1,\ldots,511\}$ without replacement, the expected number of $1$'s in the binary representation of $a+b$ can be written in simplest from as $\tfrac{m}{n}$. Compute $m+n$.

If two distinct integers from $1$ to $50$ inclusive are chosen at random, what is the expected value of their product? Note: The expectation is defined as the sum of the products of probability and value, i.e., the expected value of a coin flip that gives you $\$10$ if head and $\$5$ if tail is $\tfrac12\times\$10+\tfrac12\times\$5=\$7.5$.

$ R_k(m,n)$ is the least number such that for each coloring of $ k$-subsets of $ \{1,2,\dots,R_k(m,n)\}$ with blue and red colors, there is a subset with $ m$ elements such that all of its k-subsets are red or there is a subset with $ n$ elements such that all of its $ k$-subsets are blue. a) If we give a direction randomly to all edges of a graph $ K_n$ then what is the probability that the resultant graph does not have directed triangles? b) Prove that there exists a $ c$ such that $ R_3(4,n)\geq2^{cn}$.

Let $n \geq 3$ be an integer. At a MEMO-like competition, there are $3n$ participants, there are n languages spoken, and each participant speaks exactly three different languages. Prove that at least $\left\lceil\frac{2n}{9}\right\rceil$ of the spoken languages can be chosen in such a way that no participant speaks more than two of the chosen languages. [b]Note.[/b] $\lceil x\rceil$ is the smallest integer which is greater than or equal to $x$.

Let $ S$ be a finite set of points in the plane such that no three of them are on a line. For each convex polygon $ P$ whose vertices are in $ S$, let $ a(P)$ be the number of vertices of $ P$, and let $ b(P)$ be the number of points of $ S$ which are outside $ P$. A line segment, a point, and the empty set are considered as convex polygons of $ 2$, $ 1$, and $ 0$ vertices respectively. Prove that for every real number $ x$ \[\sum_{P}{x^{a(P)}(1 \minus{} x)^{b(P)}} \equal{} 1,\] where the sum is taken over all convex polygons with vertices in $ S$. [i]Alternative formulation[/i]: Let $ M$ be a finite point set in the plane and no three points are collinear. A subset $ A$ of $ M$ will be called round if its elements is the set of vertices of a convex $ A \minus{}$gon $ V(A).$ For each round subset let $ r(A)$ be the number of points from $ M$ which are exterior from the convex $ A \minus{}$gon $ V(A).$ Subsets with $ 0,1$ and 2 elements are always round, its corresponding polygons are the empty set, a point or a segment, respectively (for which all other points that are not vertices of the polygon are exterior). For each round subset $ A$ of $ M$ construct the polynomial \[ P_A(x) \equal{} x^{|A|}(1 \minus{} x)^{r(A)}. \] Show that the sum of polynomials for all round subsets is exactly the polynomial $ P(x) \equal{} 1.$ [i]Proposed by Federico Ardila, Colombia[/i]

Two jokers are added to a $52$ card deck and the entire stack of $54$ cards is shuffled randomly. What is the expected number of cards that will be strictly between the two jokers?

Let $a_1,a_2,a_3,\ldots$ be an infinite sequence where for all positive integers $i$, $a_i$ is chosen to be a random positive integer between $1$ and $2016$, inclusive. Let $S$ be the set of all positive integers $k$ such that for all positive integers $j<k$, $a_j\neq a_k$. (So $1\in S$; $2\in S$ if and only if $a_1\neq a_2$; $3\in S$ if and only if $a_1\neq a_3$ and $a_2\neq a_3$; and so on.) In simplest form, let $\dfrac{p}{q}$ be the expected number of positive integers $m$ such that $m$ and $m+1$ are in $S$. Compute $pq$.

Rachel the unicorn lives on the numberline at the number $0$. One day, Rachel decides she’d like to travel the world and visit the numbers $1, 2, 3, \ldots, 31$. She starts off at the number $0$, with a list of the numbers she wants to visit: $1, 2, 3, \ldots , 31$. Rachel then picks one of the numbers on her list uniformly at random, crosses it off the list, and travels to that number in a straight line path. She repeats this process until she has crossed off and visited all thirty-one of the numbers from her original list. At the end of her trip, she returns to her home at $0$. What is the expected length of Rachel’s round trip?

Let $a_1,a_2,...,a_9$ be nine real numbers, not necessarily distinct, with average $m$. Let $A$ denote the number of triples $1 \le i < j < k \le 9$ for which $a_i + a_j + a_k \ge 3m$. What is the minimum possible value of $A$? [i]Proposed by Ray Li[/i]