Suppose that one of every $500$ people in a certain population has a particular disease, which displays no symptoms. A blood test is available for screening for this disease. For a person who has this disease, the test always turns out positive. For a person who does not have the disease, however, there is a $2\%$ false positive rate; in other words, for such people, $98\%$ of the time the test will turn out negative, but $2\%$ of the time the test will turn out positive and will incorrectly indicate that the person has the disease. Let $p$ be the probability that a person who is chosen at random from the population and gets a positive test result actually has the disease. Which of the following is closest to $p$? $ \textbf{(A)}\ \frac{1}{98}\qquad\textbf{(B)}\ \frac{1}{9}\qquad\textbf{(C)}\ \frac{1}{11}\qquad\textbf{(D)}\ \frac{49}{99}\qquad\textbf{(E)}\ \frac{98}{99}$

A permutation $(a_1, a_2, a_3, \dots, a_{2012})$ of $(1, 2, 3, \dots, 2012)$ is selected at random. If $S$ is the expected value of \[ \sum_{i = 1}^{2012} | a_i - i |, \] then compute the sum of the prime factors of $S$. [i]Proposed by Aaron Lin[/i]

A clock has an hour, minute, and second hand, all of length $1$. Let $T$ be the triangle formed by the ends of these hands. A time of day is chosen uniformly at random. What is the expected value of the area of $T$? [i]Proposed by Dylan Toh[/i]

In the Duma there are 1600 delegates, who have formed 16000 committees of 80 persons each. Prove that one can find two committees having no fewer than four common members. [i]A. Skopenkov[/i]

The George Washington Bridge is $2016$ meters long. Sally is standing on the George Washington Bridge, $1010$ meters from its left end. Each step, she either moves $1$ meter to the left or $1$ meter to the right, each with probability $\dfrac{1}{2}$. What is the expected number of steps she will take to reach an end of the bridge?

A [i]triangulation[/i] of a polygon is a subdivision of the polygon into triangles meeting edge to edge, with the property that the set of triangle vertices coincides with the set of vertices of the polygon. Adam randomly selects a triangulation of a regular $180$-gon. Then, Bob selects one of the $178$ triangles in this triangulation. The expected number of $1^\circ$ angles in this triangle can be expressed as $\frac{a}{b}$, where $a$ and $b$ are relatively prime positive integers. Compute $100a + b$. [i]Proposed by Lewis Chen[/i]

Let $K{}$ be an equilateral triangle of unit area, and choose $n{}$ independent random points uniformly from $K{}$. Let $K_n$ be the intersection of all translations of $K{}$ that contain all the selected points. Determine the expected value of the area of $K_n.$

For each permutation $ a_1, a_2, a_3, \ldots,a_{10}$ of the integers $ 1,2,3,\ldots,10,$ form the sum \[ |a_1 \minus{} a_2| \plus{} |a_3 \minus{} a_4| \plus{} |a_5 \minus{} a_6| \plus{} |a_7 \minus{} a_8| \plus{} |a_9 \minus{} a_{10}|.\] The average value of all such sums can be written in the form $ p/q,$ where $ p$ and $ q$ are relatively prime positive integers. Find $ p \plus{} q.$

Let $0<p<1$ be given. Initially, we have $n$ coins, all of which have probability $p$ of landing on heads, and probability $1-p$ of landing on tails (the results of the tosses are independent of each other). In each round, we toss our coins and remove those that result in heads. We keep repeating this until all our coins are removed. Let $k_n$ denote the expected number of rounds that are needed to get rid of all the coins. Prove that there exists $c>0$ for which the following inequality holds for all $n>0$ \[c\bigg(1+\frac{1}{2}+\cdots+\frac{1}{n}\bigg)<k_n<1+c\bigg(1+\frac{1}{2}+\cdots+\frac{1}{n}\bigg).\]

Let $a_1,a_2,a_3,\ldots$ be an infinite sequence where for all positive integers $i$, $a_i$ is chosen to be a random positive integer between $1$ and $2016$, inclusive. Let $S$ be the set of all positive integers $k$ such that for all positive integers $j<k$, $a_j\neq a_k$. (So $1\in S$; $2\in S$ if and only if $a_1\neq a_2$; $3\in S$ if and only if $a_1\neq a_3$ and $a_2\neq a_3$; and so on.) In simplest form, let $\dfrac{p}{q}$ be the expected number of positive integers $m$ such that $m$ and $m+1$ are in $S$. Compute $pq$.

Erick stands in the square in the 2nd row and 2nd column of a 5 by 5 chessboard. There are \$1 bills in the top left and bottom right squares, and there are \$5 bills in the top right and bottom left squares, as shown below. \[\begin{tabular}{|p{1em}|p{1em}|p{1em}|p{1em}|p{1em}|} \hline \$1 & & & & \$5 \\ \hline & E & & &\\ \hline & & & &\\ \hline & & & &\\ \hline \$5 & & & & \$1 \\ \hline \end{tabular}\] Every second, Erick randomly chooses a square adjacent to the one he currently stands in (that is, a square sharing an edge with the one he currently stands in) and moves to that square. When Erick reaches a square with money on it, he takes it and quits. The expected value of Erick's winnings in dollars is $m/n$, where $m$ and $n$ are relatively prime positive integers. Find $m+n$.

A [i]triangulation[/i] of a polygon is a subdivision of the polygon into triangles meeting edge to edge, with the property that the set of triangle vertices coincides with the set of vertices of the polygon. Adam randomly selects a triangulation of a regular $180$-gon. Then, Bob selects one of the $178$ triangles in this triangulation. The expected number of $1^\circ$ angles in this triangle can be expressed as $\frac{a}{b}$, where $a$ and $b$ are relatively prime positive integers. Compute $100a + b$. [i]Proposed by Lewis Chen[/i]

Suppose we wish to pick a random integer between $1$ and $N$ inclusive by flipping a fair coin. One way we can do this is through generating a random binary decimal between $0$ and $1$, then multiplying the result by $N$ and taking the ceiling. However, this would take an infinite amount of time. We therefore stopping the flipping process after we have enough flips to determine the ceiling of the number. For instance, if $N=3$, we could conclude that the number is $2$ after flipping $.011_2$, but $.010_2$ is inconclusive. Suppose $N=2014$. The expected number of flips for such a process is $\frac{m}{n}$ where $m$, $n$ are relatively prime positive integers, find $100m+n$. [i]Proposed by Lewis Chen[/i]

Natalie has a copy of the unit interval $[0,1]$ that is colored white. She also has a black marker, and she colors the interval in the following manner: at each step, she selects a value $x\in [0,1]$ uniformly at random, and (a) If $x\leq\tfrac12$ she colors the interval $[x,x+\tfrac12]$ with her marker. (b) If $x>\tfrac12$ she colors the intervals $[x,1]$ and $[0,x-\tfrac12]$ with her marker. What is the expected value of the number of steps Natalie will need to color the entire interval black?

Suppose $x$ is a random real number between $1$ and $4$, and $y$ is a random real number between $1$ and $9$. If the expected value of \[ \left\lceil \log_2 x \right\rceil - \left\lfloor \log_3 y \right\rfloor \] can be expressed as $\frac mn$ where $m$ and $n$ are relatively prime positive integers, compute $100m + n$. [i]Proposed by Lewis Chen[/i]

A deck of $ n$ playing cards, which contains three aces, is shuffled at random (it is assumed that all possible card distributions are equally likely). The cards are then turned up one by one from the top until the second ace appears. Prove that the expected (average) number of cards to be turned up is $ (n\plus{}1)/2$.

Suppose you are given a fair coin and a sheet of paper with the polynomial $x^m$ written on it. Now for each toss of the coin, if heads show up, you must erase the polynomial $x^r$ (where $r$ is going to change with time - initially it is $m$) written on the paper and replace it with $x^{r-1}$. If tails show up, replace it with $x^{r+1}$. What is the expected value of the polynomial I get after $m$ such tosses? (Note: this is a different concept from the most probable value)

Each of the $9$ cells in a $3\times 3$ grid is colored either blue or white with equal probability. The expected value of the area of the largest square of blue cells contained within the grid is $\tfrac{m}{n},$ where $m$ and $n$ are relatively prime positive integers. Find $m+n.$

Bhairav the Bat lives next to a town where $12.5$% of the inhabitants have Type AB blood. When Bhairav the Bat leaves his cave at night to suck of the inhabitants blood, chooses individuals at random until he bites one with type AB blood, after which he stops. What is the expected value of the number of individuals Bhairav the Bat will bite in any given night? [i]2015 CCA Math Bonanza Lightning Round #3.1[/i]

Xavier takes a permutation of the numbers $1$ through $2011$ at random, where each permutation has an equal probability of being selected. He then cuts the permutation into increasing contiguous subsequences, such that each subsequence is as long as possible. Compute the expected number of such subsequences. [i]Author: Alex Zhu[/i] [hide="Clarification"]An increasing contiguous subsequence is an increasing subsequence all of whose terms are adjacent in the original sequence. For example, 1,3,4,5,2 has two maximal increasing contiguous subsequences: (1,3,4,5) and (2). [/hide]

For a permutation $P = (p_1, p_2, ... , p_n)$ of $(1, 2, ... , n)$ define $X(P)$ as the number of $j$ such that $p_i < p_j$ for every $i < j$. What is the expected value of $X(P)$ if each permutation is equally likely?

Inside a square with side lengths $1$ a broken line of length $>1000$ without selfintersection is drawn. Show that there is a line parallel to a side of the square that intersects the broken line in at least $501$ points.

There is a very popular race course where runners frequently go for a daily run. Assume that all runners randomly select a start time, a starting position on the course, and a direction to run. Also assume that all runners make exactly one complete circuit of the race course, all runners run at the same speed, and all runners complete the circuit in one hour. Suppose that one afternoon you go for a run on this race course, and you count $300$ runners which you pass going in the opposite direction, although some of those runners you count twice since you pass them twice. What is the expected value of the number of different runners that you pass not counting duplicates?

John has a standard four-sided die. Each roll, he gains points equal to the value of the roll multiplied by the number of times he has now rolled that number; for example, if his first rolls were $3,3,2,3$, he would have $3+6+2+9=20$ points. Find the expected number of points John will have after rolling the die 25 times.

A drunken person walks randomly on a tree. Each time, he chooses uniformly at random a neighbouring node and walks there. Show that wherever his starting point and goal are, the expected number of steps the person takes to reach the goal is always an integer. [i]houkai[/i]