Let $X$ be normally distributed with mean $\mu$ and variance $\sigma^2>0$. What is the variance of $e^X$?

There are seven cards in a hat, and on the card $k$ there is a number $2^{k-1}$, $k=1,2,...,7$. Solarin picks the cards up at random from the hat, one card at a time, until the sum of the numbers on cards in his hand exceeds $124$. What is the most probable sum he can get?

Bob has invented the Very Normal Coin (VNC). When the VNC is flipped, it shows heads $\textstyle\frac{1}{2}$ of the time and tails $\textstyle\frac{1}{2}$ of the time - unless it has yielded the same result five times in a row, in which case it is guaranteed to yield the opposite result. For example, if Bob flips five heads in a row, then the next flip is guaranteed to be tails. Bob flips the VNC an infinite number of times. On the $n$th flip, Bob bets $2^{-n}$ dollars that the VNC will show heads (so if the second flip shows heads, Bob wins $\$0.25$, and if the third flip shows tails, Bob loses $\$0.125$). Assume that dollars are infinitely divisible. Given that the first flip is heads, the expected number of dollars Bob is expected to win can be expressed as $\frac{a}{b}$ for relatively prime positive integers $a, b$. Compute $100a + b$. [i]Proposed by Lewis Chen[/i]

If a number is selected at random from the set of all five-digit numbers in which the sum of the digits is equal to $43$, what is the probability that this number is divisible by $11$? $\textbf{(A) }2/5\qquad\textbf{(B) }1/5\qquad\textbf{(C) }1/6\qquad\textbf{(D) }1/11\qquad \textbf{(E) }1/15$

In a finite, simple, connected graph $G$ we play the following game: initially we color all the vertices with a different color. In each step we choose a vertex randomly (with uniform distribution), and then choose one of its neighbors randomly (also with uniform distribution), and color it to the the same color as the originally chosen vertex (if the two chosen vertices already have the same color, we do nothing). The game ends when all the vertices have the same color. Knowing graph $G$ find the probability for each vertex that the game ends with all vertices having the same color as the chosen vertex.

In the game of Yahtzee , players have to achieve various combinations of values with $5$ dice. In a round, a player can roll the dice three times. At the second and third rolls, he can choose which dice to re-roll and which to keep. What is the probability that a player achieves at least four $6$’s in a round, given that he plays with the optimal strategy to maximise this probability? Writing the answer as $p/q$ where $p$ and $q$ are coprime, you should submit the sum of all prime factors of $p$, counted with multiplicity. So for example if you obtained $\frac{p}{q} = \frac{3^4 \cdot 11}{ 2^5 \cdot 5}$ then the submitted answer should be $4 \cdot 3 + 11 = 23$.

Rational numbers $a$ and $b$ are chosen at random among all rational numbers in the interval $[0,2)$ that can be written as fractions $\tfrac nd$ where $n$ and $d$ are integers with $1\leq d\leq 5$. What is the probability that \[(\cos(a\pi)+i\sin(b\pi))^4\] is a real number? $\textbf{(A) }\dfrac3{50}\qquad\textbf{(B) }\dfrac4{25}\qquad\textbf{(C) }\dfrac{41}{200}\qquad\textbf{(D) }\dfrac6{25}\qquad\textbf{(E) }\dfrac{13}{50}$

Let $n$ be a positive integer, and let Pushover be a game played by two players, standing squarely facing each other, pushing each other, where the first person to lose balance loses. At the HMPT, $2^{n+1}$ competitors, numbered $1$ through $2^{n+1}$ clockwise, stand in a circle. They are equals in Pushover: whenever two of them face off, each has a $50\%$ probability of victory. The tournament unfolds in $n+1$ rounds. In each rounjd, the referee randomly chooses one of the surviving players, and the players pair off going clockwise, starting from the chosen one. Each pair faces off in Pushover, and the losers leave the circle. What is the probability that players $1$ and $2^n$ face each other in the last round? Express your answer in terms of $n$.

Two points $A$ and $B$ are selected independently and uniformly at random along the perimeter of a unit square with vertices at $(0,0)$, $(1,0)$, $(0,1)$, and $(1,1)$. The probability that the $y$-coordinate of $A$ is strictly greater than the $y$-coordinate of $B$ can be expressed as $\tfrac{m}{n}$, where $m$ and $n$ are relatively prime positive integers. Compute $100m+n$. [i]Proposed by Rajiv Movva[/i]

A piece of string is cut in two at a point selected at random. The probability that the longer piece is at least $x$ times as large as the shorter piece is $\textbf{(A) }\frac{1}{2}\qquad\textbf{(B) }\frac{2}{x}\qquad\textbf{(C) }\frac{1}{x+1}\qquad\textbf{(D) }\frac{1}{x}\qquad \textbf{(E) }\frac{2}{x+1}$

Anna writes a sequence of integers starting with the number 12. Each subsequent integer she writes is chosen randomly with equal chance from among the positive divisors of the previous integer (including the possibility of the integer itself). She keeps writing integers until she writes the integer 1 for the first time, and then she stops. One such sequence is \[ 12, 6, 6, 3, 3, 3, 1. \] What is the expected value of the number of terms in Anna’s sequence?

Kelvin and Quinn are collecting trading cards; there are $6$ distinct cards that could appear in a pack. Each pack contains exactly one card, and each card is equally likely. Kelvin buys packs until he has at least one copy of every card, and then he stops buying packs. If Quinn is missing exactly one card, the probability that Kelvin has at least two copies of the card Quinn is missing is expressible as $\tfrac{m}{n}$ for coprime positive integers $m$ and $n$. Determine $m+n$.

We play a game. The pot starts at $\$0$. On every turn, you flip a fair coin. If you flip heads, I add $\$100$ to the pot. If you flip tails, I take all of the money out of the pot, and you are assessed a "strike". You can stop the game before any flip and collect the contents of the pot, but if you get 3 strikes, the game is over and you win nothing. Find, with proof, the expected value of your winnings if you follow an optimal strategy.

Prinstan Trollner and Dukejukem are competing at the game show WASS. Both players spin a wheel which chooses an integer from $1$ to $50$ uniformly at random, and this number becomes their score. Dukejukem then flips a weighted coin that lands heads with probability $\tfrac{3}{5}$. If he flips heads, he adds $1$ to his score. A player wins the game if their score is higher than the other player's score. A player wins the game if their score is higher than the other player's score. The probability Dukejukem defeats the Trollner to win WASS equals $\tfrac{m}{n}$ where $m$ and $n$ are coprime positive integers. Computer $m+n$.

Six children stand in a line outside their classroom. When they enter the classroom, they sit in a circle in random order. There are relatively prime positive integers $m$ and $n$ so that $\tfrac{m}{n}$ is the probability that no two children who stood next to each other in the line end up sitting next to each other in the circle. Find $m + n$.

Galatasaray and Fenerbahce have qualified last $16$ in the Europen Champions League. Aftar a random draw, eight matches are regulated in that knock-out phase. The winners of the eight matches will qualify for the next round - round of $8$. Knock-out phase continues until one team remains. If each team has equal chance to win, what is the propability of having a Galatasaray-Fenerbahce match? $ \textbf{(A)}\ \dfrac {1}{32} \qquad\textbf{(B)}\ \dfrac {1}{16} \qquad\textbf{(C)}\ \dfrac {1}{8} \qquad\textbf{(D)}\ \dfrac {1}{4} \qquad\textbf{(E)}\ \text{None of the preceding} $

There are three bags. One bag contains three green candies and one red candy. One bag contains two green candies and two red candies. One bag contains one green candy and three red candies. A child randomly selects one of the bags, randomly chooses a first candy from that bag, and eats the candy. If the first candy had been green, the child randomly chooses one of the other two bags and randomly selects a second candy from that bag. If the first candy had been red, the child randomly selects a second candy from the same bag as the first candy. If the probability that the second candy is green is given by the fraction $m/n$ in lowest terms, find $m + n$.

Let $n$ be a positive integer and let $\mathcal{A}$ be a family of non-empty subsets of $\{1, 2, \ldots, n \}$ such that if $A \in \mathcal{A}$ and $A$ is subset of a set $B\subseteq \{1, 2, \ldots, n\}$, then $B$ is also in $\mathcal{A}$. Show that the function $$f(x):=\sum_{A \in \mathcal{A}} x^{|A|}(1-x)^{n-|A|}$$ is strictly increasing for $x \in (0,1)$.

Three numbers are chosen independently at random, one from each of the three intervals $[0, L_i ]$ ($i=1,2,3$). If the distribution of each random number is uniform with respect to the length of the interval it is chosen from, determine the expected value of the smallest number chosen.

Coin $ A$ is flipped three times and coin $ B$ is flipped four times. What is the probability that the number of heads obtained from flipping the two fair coins is the same? $ \textbf{(A)}\ \frac {19}{128}\qquad \textbf{(B)}\ \frac {23}{128}\qquad \textbf{(C)}\ \frac {1}{4}\qquad \textbf{(D)}\ \frac {35}{128}\qquad \textbf{(E)}\ \frac {1}{2}$

Joe generates 4 independent random numbers in $(0,1)$ according to the uniform distribution. He shows one the numbers to Bill, who has to guess whether the number shown is one of the extremal numbers (that is, the smallest or the greatest) of the four numbers or not. Can Joe have a deterministic strategy such that no matter what Bill's method is, the probability of the right guess of Bill is at most $\frac12$?

Two three-letter strings, $aaa$ and $bbb$, are transmitted electronically. Each string is sent letter by letter. Due to faulty equipment, each of the six letters has a 1/3 chance of being received incorrectly, as an $a$ when it should have been a $b$, or as a $b$ when it should be an $a$. However, whether a given letter is received correctly or incorrectly is independent of the reception of any other letter. Let $S_a$ be the three-letter string received when $aaa$ is transmitted and let $S_b$ be the three-letter string received when $bbb$ is transmitted. Let $p$ be the probability that $S_a$ comes before $S_b$ in alphabetical order. When $p$ is written as a fraction in lowest terms, what is its numerator?

The integers $1, 2, \dots , 9$ are written on individual slips of paper and all are put into a bag. Ade chooses a slip at random, notes the integer on it, and replaces it in the bag. Bala then picks a slip at random and notes the integer written on it. Chioma then adds up Ade's and Bala's numbers. What is the probability that the unit's digit of this sum is less that $5$?

A gambler plays the following coin-tossing game. He can bet an arbitrary positive amount of money. Then a fair coin is tossed, and the gambler wins or loses the amount he bet depending on the outcome. Our gambler, who starts playing with $ x$ forints, where $ 0<x<2C$, uses the following strategy: if at a given time his capital is $ y<C$, he risks all of it; and if he has $ y>C$, he only bets $ 2C\minus{}y$. If he has exactly $ 2C$ forints, he stops playing. Let $ f(x)$ be the probability that he reaches $ 2C$ (before going bankrupt). Determine the value of $ f(x)$.

Two fair octahedral dice, each with the numbers $1$ through $8$ on their faces, are rolled. Let $N$ be the remainder when the product of the numbers showing on the two dice is divided by $8$. Find the expected value of $N$.