In a $4\times 4$ grid of unit squares, five squares are chosen at random. The probability that no two chosen squares share a side is $\tfrac mn$ for positive relatively prime integers $m$ and $n$. Find $m+n$. [i]Proposed by David Altizio[/i]

Let $ \{\xi_{k \ell} \}_{k,\ell=1}^{\infty}$ be a double sequence of random variables such that \[ \Bbb{E}( \xi_{ij} \xi_{k\ell})= \mathcal{O} \left(\frac{ \log(2|i-k|+2)}{ \log(2|j-\ell|+2)^{2}}\right) \;\;\;(i,j,k,\ell =1,2, \ldots ) \\\ .\] Prove that with probability one, \[ \frac{1}{mn} \sum_{k=1}^m \sum_{\ell=1}^n \xi_{k\ell} \rightarrow 0 \;\;\textrm{as} \; \max (m,n)\rightarrow \infty\ \\ .\] [i]F. Moricz[/i]

Ali, Bonnie, Carlo, and Dianna are going to drive together to a nearby theme park. The car they are using has $4$ seats: $1$ Driver seat, $1$ front passenger seat, and $2$ back passenger seat. Bonnie and Carlo are the only ones who know how to drive the car. How many possible seating arrangements are there? $\textbf{(A)}\ 2 \qquad \textbf{(B)}\ 4 \qquad \textbf{(C)}\ 6 \qquad \textbf{(D)}\ 12 \qquad \textbf{(E)}\ 24$

When 7 fair standard 6-sided dice are thrown, the probability that the sum of the numbers on the top faces is 10 can be written as $$\frac{n}{6^7},$$where $n$ is a positive integer. What is $n$? $\textbf{(A) } 42 \qquad \textbf{(B) } 49 \qquad \textbf{(C) } 56 \qquad \textbf{(D) } 63 \qquad \textbf{(E) } 84 $

In the game of Guess the Card, two players each have a $\frac{1}{2}$ chance of winning and there is exactly one winner. Sixteen competitors stand in a circle, numbered $1,2,\dots,16$ clockwise. They participate in an $4$-round single-elimination tournament of Guess the Card. Each round, the referee randomly chooses one of the remaining players, and the players pair off going clockwise, starting from the chosen one; each pair then plays Guess the Card and the losers leave the circle. If the probability that players $1$ and $9$ face each other in the last round is $\frac{m}{n}$ where $m,n$ are positive integers, find $100m+n$. [i]Proposed by Evan Chen[/i]

A circle of radius $ r$ is concentric with and outside a regular hexagon of side length 2. The probability that three entire sides of hexagon are visible from a randomly chosen point on the circle is 1/2. What is $ r$? $ \textbf{(A) } 2\sqrt {2} \plus{} 2\sqrt {3} \qquad \textbf{(B) } 3\sqrt {3} \plus{} \sqrt {2} \qquad \textbf{(C) } 2\sqrt {6} \plus{} \sqrt {3} \qquad \textbf{(D) } 3\sqrt {2} \plus{} \sqrt {6}\\ \textbf{(E) } 6\sqrt {2} \minus{} \sqrt {3}$

Emily starts with an empty bucket. Every second, she either adds a stone to the bucket or removes a stone from the bucket, each with probability $\frac{1}{2}$. If she wants to remove a stone from the bucket and the bucket is currently empty, she merely does nothing for that second (still with probability $\hfill \frac{1}{2}$). What is the probability that after $2017$ seconds her bucket contains exactly $1337$ stones?

On the dart board shown in the figure, the outer circle has radius 6 and the inner circle has radius 3. Three radii divide each circle into the three congruent regions, with point values shown. The probability that a dart will hit a given region is proportional to to the area of the region. What two darts hit this board, the score is the sum of the point values in the regions. What is the probability that the score is odd? [asy] draw(Circle(origin, 2)); draw(Circle(origin, 1)); draw(origin--2*dir(90)); draw(origin--2*dir(210)); draw(origin--2*dir(330)); label("$1$", 0.35*dir(150), dir(150)); label("$1$", 1.3*dir(30), dir(30)); label("$1$", (0,-1.3), dir(270)); label("$2$", 1.3*dir(150), dir(150)); label("$2$", 0.35*dir(30), dir(30)); label("$2$", (0,-0.35), dir(270));[/asy] $ \textbf{(A)}\: \frac{17}{36}\qquad \textbf{(B)}\: \frac{35}{72}\qquad \textbf{(C)}\: \frac{1}{2}\qquad \textbf{(D)}\: \frac{37}{72}\qquad \textbf{(E)}\: \frac{19}{36}\qquad $

Darryl has a six-sided die with faces $1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6$. He knows the die is weighted so that one face comes up with probability $1/2$ and the other five faces have equal probability of coming up. He unfortunately does not know which side is weighted, but he knows each face is equally likely to be the weighted one. He rolls the die $5$ times and gets a $1, 2, 3, 4$ and $5$ in some unspecified order. Compute the probability that his next roll is a $6$.

Let $p=2^{16}+1$ be a prime. A sequence of $2^{16}$ positive integers $\{a_n\}$ is [i]monotonically bounded[/i] if $1\leq a_i\leq i$ for all $1\leq i\leq 2^{16}$. We say that a term $a_k$ in the sequence with $2\leq k\leq 2^{16}-1$ is a [i]mountain[/i] if $a_k$ is greater than both $a_{k-1}$ and $a_{k+1}$. Evan writes out all possible monotonically bounded sequences. Let $N$ be the total number of mountain terms over all such sequences he writes. Find the remainder when $N$ is divided by $p$. [i]Proposed by Michael Ren[/i]

The origami club meets once a week at a fixed time, but this week, the club had to reschedule the meeting to a different time during the same day. However, the room that they usually meet has $5$ available time slots, one of which is the original time the origami club meets. If at any given time slot, there is a $30$ percent chance the room is not available, what is the probability the origami club will be able to meet at that day?

Let $S$ be a subset of $\{1,2,3,\dots,30\}$ with the property that no pair of distinct elements in $S$ has a sum divisible by $5$. What is the largest possible size of $S$? $ \textbf{(A)}\ 10\qquad\textbf{(B)}\ 13\qquad\textbf{(C)}\ 15\qquad\textbf{(D)}\ 16\qquad\textbf{(E)}\ 18 $

In a small pond there are eleven lily pads in a row labeled $0$ through $10$. A frog is sitting on pad $1$. When the frog is on pad $N$, $0<N<10$, it will jump to pad $N-1$ with probability $\frac{N}{10}$ and to pad $N+1$ with probability $1-\frac{N}{10}$. Each jump is independent of the previous jumps. If the frog reaches pad $0$ it will be eaten by a patiently waiting snake. If the frog reaches pad $10$ it will exit the pond, never to return. What is the probability that the frog will escape being eaten by the snake? $ \textbf {(A) } \frac{32}{79} \qquad \textbf {(B) } \frac{161}{384} \qquad \textbf {(C) } \frac{63}{146} \qquad \textbf {(D) } \frac{7}{16} \qquad \textbf {(E) } \frac{1}{2} $

Let $P$ be an arbitrary point inside $\triangle ABC$ with sides $3,7,8$. What is the probability that the distance of $P$ to at least one vertices of the triangle is less than $1$? $ \textbf{(A)}\ \frac{\pi}{36}\sqrt 2 \qquad\textbf{(B)}\ \frac{\pi}{36}\sqrt 3 \qquad\textbf{(C)}\ \frac{\pi}{36} \qquad\textbf{(D)}\ \frac12 \qquad\textbf{(E)}\ \frac 34 $

Let $ A_1,...,A_n$ be arbitrary events in a probability field. Denote by $ C_k$ the event that at least $ k$ of $ A_1,...,A_n$ occur. Prove that \[ \prod_{k=1}^n P(C_k) \leq \prod_{k=1}^n P(A_k).\] [i]A. Renyi[/i]

Aaron takes a square sheet of paper, with one corner labeled $A$. Point $P$ is chosen at random inside of the square and Aaron folds the paper so that points $A$ and $P$ coincide. He cuts the sheet along the crease and discards the piece containing $A$. Let $p$ be the probability that the remaining piece is a pentagon. Find the integer nearest to $100p$. [i]Proposed by Aaron Lin[/i]

Dave's Amazing Hotel has $3$ floors. If you press the up button on the elevator from the $3$rd floor, you are immediately transported to the $1$st floor. Similarly, if you press the down button from the $1$st floor, you are immediately transported to the $3$rd floor. Dave gets in the elevator at the $1$st floor and randomly presses up or down at each floor. After doing this $482$ times, the probability that Dave is on the first floor can be expressed as $\frac{m}{n}$ where $m$ and $n$ are relatively prime positive integers. What is the remainder when $m+n$ is divided by $1000$? $\text{(A) }136\qquad\text{(B) }294\qquad\text{(C) }508\qquad\text{(D) }692\qquad\text{(E) }803$

Let $ U$ be an $ n \times n$ orthogonal matrix. Prove that for any $ n \times n$ matrix $ A$, the matrices \[ A_m=\frac{1}{m+1} \sum_{j=0}^m U^{-j}AU^j\] converge entrywise as $ m \rightarrow \infty.$ [i]L. Kovacs[/i]

Players $A$ and $B$ play the following game. Each of them throws a dice, and if the outcomes are $x$ and $y$ respectively, a list of all two digit numbers $10a + b$ with $a,b\in \{1,..,6\}$ and $10a + b \le 10x + y$ is created. Then the players alternately reduce the list by replacing a pair of numbers in the list by their absolute difference, until only one number remains. If the remaining number is of the same parity as the outcome of $A$’s throw, then $A$ is proclaimed the winner. What is the probability that $A$ wins the game?

Everyday at school, Jo climbs a flight of $6$ stairs. Joe can take the stairs $1,2$, or $3$ at a time. For example, Jo could climb $3$, then $1$, then $2$. In how many ways can Jo climb the stairs? $ \textbf{(A)}\ 13 \qquad\textbf{(B)}\ 18\qquad\textbf{(C)}\ 20\qquad\textbf{(D)}\ 22\qquad\textbf{(E)}\ 24 $

Let $a_1,a_2,...,a_9$ be nine real numbers, not necessarily distinct, with average $m$. Let $A$ denote the number of triples $1 \le i < j < k \le 9$ for which $a_i + a_j + a_k \ge 3m$. What is the minimum possible value of $A$? [i]Proposed by Ray Li[/i]

Let $(\Omega, \mathcal A, P)$ be a probability space, and let $(X_n, \mathcal F_n)$ be an adapted sequence in $(\Omega, \mathcal A, P)$ (that is, for the $\sigma$-algebras $\mathcal F_n$, we have $\mathcal F_1\subseteq \mathcal F_2\subseteq \dots \subseteq \mathcal A$, and for all $n$, $X_n$ is an $\mathcal F_n$-measurable and integrable random variable). Assume that $$\mathrm E (X_{n+1} \mid \mathcal F_n )=\frac12 X_n+\frac12 X_{n-1}\,\,\,\,\, (n=2, 3, \ldots )$$ Prove that $\mathrm{sup}_n \mathrm{E}|X_n|<\infty$ implies that $X_n$ converges with probability one as $n\to\infty$. [I. Fazekas]

Let $ S$ be a finite set of points in the plane such that no three of them are on a line. For each convex polygon $ P$ whose vertices are in $ S$, let $ a(P)$ be the number of vertices of $ P$, and let $ b(P)$ be the number of points of $ S$ which are outside $ P$. A line segment, a point, and the empty set are considered as convex polygons of $ 2$, $ 1$, and $ 0$ vertices respectively. Prove that for every real number $ x$ \[\sum_{P}{x^{a(P)}(1 \minus{} x)^{b(P)}} \equal{} 1,\] where the sum is taken over all convex polygons with vertices in $ S$. [i]Alternative formulation[/i]: Let $ M$ be a finite point set in the plane and no three points are collinear. A subset $ A$ of $ M$ will be called round if its elements is the set of vertices of a convex $ A \minus{}$gon $ V(A).$ For each round subset let $ r(A)$ be the number of points from $ M$ which are exterior from the convex $ A \minus{}$gon $ V(A).$ Subsets with $ 0,1$ and 2 elements are always round, its corresponding polygons are the empty set, a point or a segment, respectively (for which all other points that are not vertices of the polygon are exterior). For each round subset $ A$ of $ M$ construct the polynomial \[ P_A(x) \equal{} x^{|A|}(1 \minus{} x)^{r(A)}. \] Show that the sum of polynomials for all round subsets is exactly the polynomial $ P(x) \equal{} 1.$ [i]Proposed by Federico Ardila, Colombia[/i]

When $n$ standard 6-sided dice are rolled, the probability of obtaining a sum of 1994 is greater than zero and is the same as the probability of obtaining a sum of $S$. The smallest possible value of $S$ is $ \textbf{(A)}\ 333 \qquad\textbf{(B)}\ 335 \qquad\textbf{(C)}\ 337 \qquad\textbf{(D)}\ 339 \qquad\textbf{(E)}\ 341 $

Andrew flips a fair coin $5$ times, and counts the number of heads that appear. Beth flips a fair coin $6$ times and also counts the number of heads that appear. Compute the probability Andrew counts at least as many heads as Beth.