Kelvin and $15$ other frogs are in a meeting, for a total of $16$ frogs. During the meeting, each pair of distinct frogs becomes friends with probability $\frac{1}{2}$. Kelvin thinks the situation after the meeting is [I]cool[/I] if for each of the $16$ frogs, the number of friends they made during the meeting is a multiple of $4$. Say that the probability of the situation being cool can be expressed in the form $\frac{a}{b}$, where $a$ and $b$ are relatively prime. Find $a$.

Rectangle $ABCD$ has side lengths $AB = 6\sqrt3$ and $BC = 8\sqrt3$. The probability that a randomly chosen point inside the rectangle is closer to the diagonal $\overline{AC}$ than to the outside of the rectangle is $\frac{m}{n}$ , where $m$ and $n$ are relatively prime positive integers. Find $m + n$.

Each face of a cube is painted either red or blue, each with probability $ 1/2$. The color of each face is determined independently. What is the probability that the painted cube can be placed on a horizontal surface so that the four vertical faces are all the same color? $ \textbf{(A)}\ \frac14 \qquad \textbf{(B)}\ \frac{5}{16} \qquad \textbf{(C)}\ \frac38 \qquad \textbf{(D)}\ \frac{7}{16} \qquad \textbf{(E)}\ \frac12$

It has come to a policeman's ears that 5 gangsters (all of different height) are meeting, one of them is the clan leader, he's the tallest of the 5. He knows the members will leave the building one by one, with a 10-minute break between them, and too bad for him Belgium has not enough policemen to follow all gangsters, so he's on his own to spot the clanleader, and he can only follow one member. So he decides to let go the first 2 people, and then follow the first one that is taller than those two. What's the chance he actually catches the clan leader like this?

Given any positive real number $\varepsilon$, prove that, for all but finitely many positive integers $v$, any graph on $v$ vertices with at least $(1+\varepsilon)v$ edges has two distinct simple cycles of equal lengths. (Recall that the notion of a simple cycle does not allow repetition of vertices in a cycle.) [i]Fedor Petrov, Russia[/i]

Let $P_0P_5Q_5Q_0$ be a rectangular chocolate bar, one half dark chocolate and one half white chocolate, as shown in the diagram below. We randomly select $4$ points on the segment $P_0P_5$, and immediately after selecting those points, we label those $4$ selected points $P_1, P_2, P_3, P_4$ from left to right. Similarly, we randomly select $4$ points on the segment $Q_0Q_5$, and immediately after selecting those points, we label those $4$ points $Q_1, Q_2, Q_3, Q_4$ from left to right. The segments $P_1Q_1, P_2Q_2, P_3Q_3, P_4Q_4$ divide the rectangular chocolate bar into $5$ smaller trapezoidal pieces of chocolate. The probability that exactly $3$ pieces of chocolate contain both dark and white chocolate can be written as $\frac{m}{n}$, where $m$ and $n$ are relatively prime positive integers. Find $m + n$. [Diagram in the individuals file for this exam on the Chmmc website]

A permutation $(a_1, a_2, a_3, \dots, a_{100})$ of $(1, 2, 3, \dots, 100)$ is chosen at random. Denote by $p$ the probability that $a_{2i} > a_{2i - 1}$ for all $i \in \{1, 2, 3, \dots, 50\}$. Compute the number of ordered pairs of positive integers $(a, b)$ satisfying $\textstyle\frac{1}{a^b} = p$. [i]Proposed by Aaron Lin[/i]

Let $H$ be the unit hemisphere $\{(x,y,z):x^2+y^2+z^2=1,z\geq 0\}$, $C$ the unit circle $\{(x,y,0):x^2+y^2=1\}$, and $P$ the regular pentagon inscribed in $C$. Determine the surface area of that portion of $H$ lying over the planar region inside $P$, and write your answer in the form $A \sin\alpha + B \cos\beta$, where $A,B,\alpha,\beta$ are real numbers.

The probability of drawing a red marble from a bag is $\frac{3}{5}$. After some red marbles are removed, the probability of drawing a red marble is $\frac{2}{7}$. What is the smallest number of marbles that could have originally been in the bag?

Four points are chosen at random on the surface of a sphere. What is the probability that the center of the sphere lies inside the tetrahedron whose vertices are at the four points?

Coin $ A$ is flipped three times and coin $ B$ is flipped four times. What is the probability that the number of heads obtained from flipping the two fair coins is the same? $ \textbf{(A)}\ \frac {19}{128}\qquad \textbf{(B)}\ \frac {23}{128}\qquad \textbf{(C)}\ \frac {1}{4}\qquad \textbf{(D)}\ \frac {35}{128}\qquad \textbf{(E)}\ \frac {1}{2}$

Let $p_n$ denote the probability that, in $n$ tosses, a fair coin shows the head up $100$ consecutive times. Prove that the sequence $(p_n)$ converges and determine its limit.

A website offers for $1000$ colones, the possibility of playing $4$ shifts a certain game of randomly, in each turn the user will have the same probability $p$ of winning the game and obtaining $1000$ colones (per shift). But to calculate $p$ he asks you to roll $3$ dice and add the results, with what p will be the probability of obtaining this sum. Olcoman visits the website, and upon rolling the dice, he realizes that the probability of losing his money is from $\left( \frac{103}{108}\right)^4$. a) Determine the probability $p$ that Olcoman wins a game and the possible outcomes with the dice, to get to this one. b) Which sums (with the dice) give the maximum probability of having a profit of exactly $1000$ colones? Calculate this probability and the value of $p$ for this case.

A student puts $2010$ red balls and $1957$ blue balls into a box. Weiqing draws randomly from the box one ball at a time without replacement. She wins if, at anytime, the total number of blue balls drawn is more than the total number of red balls drawn. Assuming Weiqing keeps drawing balls until she either wins or runs out, ompute the probability that she eventually wins.

A box contains exactly five chips, three red and two white. Chips are randomly removed one at a time without replacement until all the red chips are drawn or all the white chips are drawn. What is the probability that the last chip drawn is white? $ \displaystyle \textbf{(A)} \ \frac {3}{10} \qquad \textbf{(B)} \ \frac {2}{5} \qquad \textbf{(C)} \ \frac {1}{2} \qquad \textbf{(D)} \ \frac {3}{5} \qquad \textbf{(E)} \ \frac {7}{10}$

Real numbers between 0 and 1, inclusive, are chosen in the following manner. A fair coin is flipped. If it lands heads, then it is flipped again and the chosen number is 0 if the second flip is heads and 1 if the second flip is tails. On the other hand, if the first coin flip is tails, then the number is chosen uniformly at random from the closed interval $[0,1]$. Two random numbers $x$ and $y$ are chosen independently in this manner. What is the probability that $|x-y| > \tfrac{1}{2}$? $\textbf{(A)} \frac{1}{3} \qquad \textbf{(B)} \frac{7}{16} \qquad \textbf{(C)} \frac{1}{2} \qquad \textbf{(D)} \frac{9}{16} \qquad \textbf{(E)} \frac{2}{3}$

Six men and some number of women stand in a line in random order. Let $p$ be the probability that a group of at least four men stand together in the line, given that every man stands next to at least one other man. Find the least number of women in the line such that $p$ does not exceed 1 percent.

Let $K$ be a finite field with $q$ elements and let $n \ge q$ be an integer. Find the probability that by choosing an $n$-th degree polynomial with coefficients in $K,$ it doesn't have any root in $K.$

Triangle $ ABC$ is a right triangle with $ \angle ACB$ as its right angle, $ m\angle ABC \equal{} 60^\circ$, and $ AB \equal{} 10$. Let $ P$ be randomly chosen inside $ \triangle ABC$, and extend $ \overline{BP}$ to meet $ \overline{AC}$ at $ D$. What is the probability that $ BD > 5\sqrt2$? [asy]import math; unitsize(4mm); defaultpen(fontsize(8pt)+linewidth(0.7)); dotfactor=4; pair A=(10,0); pair C=(0,0); pair B=(0,10.0/sqrt(3)); pair P=(2,2); pair D=extension(A,C,B,P); draw(A--C--B--cycle); draw(B--D); dot(P); label("A",A,S); label("D",D,S); label("C",C,S); label("P",P,NE); label("B",B,N);[/asy] $ \textbf{(A)}\ \frac {2 \minus{} \sqrt2}{2} \qquad \textbf{(B)}\ \frac {1}{3} \qquad \textbf{(C)}\ \frac {3 \minus{} \sqrt3}{3} \qquad \textbf{(D)}\ \frac {1}{2} \qquad \textbf{(E)}\ \frac {5 \minus{} \sqrt5}{5}$

Kathryn has a crush on Joe. Dressed as Catwoman, she attends the same school Halloween party as Joe, hoping he will be there. If Joe gets beat up, Kathryn will be able to help Joe, and will be able to tell him how much she likes him. Otherwise, Kathryn will need to get her hipster friend, Max, who is DJing the event, to play Joe’s favorite song, “Pieces of Me” by Ashlee Simpson, to get him out on the dance floor, where she’ll also be able to tell him how much she likes him. Since playing the song would be in flagrant violation of Max’s musical integrity as a DJ, Kathryn will have to bribe him to play the song. For every $\$10$ she gives Max, the probability of him playing the song goes up $10\%$ (from $0\%$ to $10\%$ for the first $\$10$, from $10\%$ to $20\%$ for the next $\$10$, all the way up to $100\%$ if she gives him $\$100$). Max only accepts money in increments of $\$10$. How much money should Kathryn give to Max to give herself at least a $65\%$ chance of securing enough time to tell Joe how much she likes him?

The Nationwide Basketball Society (NBS) has $8001$ teams, numbered $2000$ through $10000$. For each $n$, team $n$ has $n+1$ players, and in a sheer coincidence, this year each player attempted $n$ shots and on team $n$, exactly one player made $0$ shots, one player made $1$ shot, . . ., one player made $n$ shots. A player's [i]field goal percentage[/i] is defined as the percentage of shots the player made, rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent (For instance, $32.45\%$ rounds to $32.5\%$). A player in the NBS is randomly selected among those whose field goal percentage is $66.6\%$. If this player plays for team $k$, the probability that $k\geq 6000$ can be expressed as $\tfrac{p}{q}$ for relatively prime positive integers $p$ and $q$. Find $p+q$.

Given positive integers $m$ and $n$, prove that there is a positive integer $c$ such that the numbers $cm$ and $cn$ have the same number of occurrences of each non-zero digit when written in base ten.

You are tossing an unbiased coin. The last $ 28 $ consecutive flips have all resulted in heads. Let $ x $ be the expected number of additional tosses you must make before you get $ 60 $ consecutive heads. Find the sum of all distinct prime factors in $ x $.

Eight teams are competing in a tournament all against all (every pair of team play exactly one time among them). There are not ties and both results of every game are equally probable. What is the probability that in the tournament every team had lose at least one game and won at least one game?

Central High School is competing against Northern High School in a backgammon match. Each school has three players, and the contest rules require that each player play two games against each of the other's school's players. The match takes place in six rounds, with three games played simultaneously in each round. In how many different ways can the match be scheduled? $\textbf{(A)} \ 540 \qquad \textbf{(B)} \ 600 \qquad \textbf{(C)} \ 720 \qquad \textbf{(D)} \ 810 \qquad \textbf{(E)} \ 900$